The Nerd's Eye View

By now everyone is aware of what's going on in the "Middle East", what with the amazing events in Tunis and the increasingly more predictable events in Egypt. I'm not sure as many people are aware of what's going on in the rest of the region, although I saw a report of the king of Jordan preemptively dismissing his cabinet as if to say "Ok, folks, I get it, and see? I am already on that - because I'm your buddy, the king!" Events do seem to be cascading through the region in sort of alternate version of what Messrs Rumsfeld, Cheney and Wolfowitz thought would happen after the removal of Saddam Hussein from the Iraqi presidency, such as it was.

What is actually happening is a surreal, long overdue, people-driven change (or at least the beginning of one) in the most populous country in the Middle East, and by virtue of that source it has surprised everyone from the people in charge to the people demonstrating to this guy. It's likely to (and actually is) spreading throughout the region like fire through creosote bushes, but it's not likely to take, everywhere. Here's why.

With Egypt in the spotlight it takes the spotlight off your smaller Arab states. In the Sudan, for instance, as events were heating up in Cairo, peaceful demonstrators took to the street. With the referendum in the recent past, and the central government not too keen on more uncertainty, not to mention the lack of visibility, they came down hard on the protestors and between the cudgels and the hoses, they managed to arrest a bunch of them and detain them. I'm happy for Egypt and the Egyptians, they've shown a grace and courage that I didn't expect from them and may be headed on the right path. I don't know, though, that we can all follow their path. After all Egypt has industry and a civil society that is no longer paralleled in Sudan or Yemen or the Gulf States. So where do we all go from here? That remains to be seen ... for now, I am watching with interest. If this is history, I don't want to blink.